OK,
so I really am the last person on the planet to get an iPhone. Didn't
need one you see - had this HTC/ Microsoft brick that had everything
that an iPhone had but it had 3G. OK, so the 3G iPhone has been out for
a while, but well, what was the compelling reason to change?
Never
been an Apple aficionado, so apart from my 2 iPods, never had much to
do with their products. But I have to say, what a gizmo! From the super
cool packaging to the super cool look feel and the super cool user
interface, the whole thing is just, well, cool. Mega cool is their
freebie plug-in called Shazam - you hold the iPhone to a radio, it
listens to a song playing, tells you what the song is and then lets you
download it straight to your phone. How integrated is that!
I
suspect that the iPhone has nearly all the same chips in it that the
HTC phone has but the way it's put together, they way it is so
intuitive to use, the way it just feels so nice, it exudes quality. And as Mr. Jobs bank balance will attest, quality equals premium price equals more personal jet aircraft!
So with that in mind I was musing on the fate of VOIP players. A recent article in the (London) Times
quoted a report by British communications regulator Ofcom stating that
the percentage of adults using VoIP was just 14 percent in the first
quarter of 2008 down from a peak of 20 percent in 2006.
So
what's going on? Wasn't VOIP supposed to wipe the floor with
conventional voice calls? I guess the evil empire struck back after all
with the telcos putting a nail into VoIP's coffin rather than the other
way round. How did they do that? Or maybe they didn't - maybe VOIP just
did for itself by being inadequate for the task.
Well
maybe a bit of both. After all, most circuit-switched voice traffic is
running on platforms that are long since fully depreciated and service
providers can pretty much price calls how they want because other than
using a bit of electricity and labor to run them, the capital costs of
these switches have largely been written off.
But
the real issue is quality - still a concern with VoIP even after all
this time. With a circuit switched approach, you get your very own
virtual path from end-end but with VoIP, your call is going into this
big cloud with no packet priority whatsoever fighting all those video
downloads that are hogging the net. Voice is real-time and real-time
call delay and jitter can really screw things up, but then the Bell-
heads told the Net-heads that but they didn't listen.
And
then there's the convenience factor - with VoIP just isn't there yet.
When you do PC-to-PC calling you're anchored to your desk. And if one
party is coming into the call over a raw IP connection or there's a mix
of people on the traditional voice network and IP, all bets are off on
what kind of call quality you'll end up with.
So
put simply, VoIP just doesn't have the price advantage over traditional
calling to offset the disadvantages and it just gets too hard to mess
with after a while on basic VOIP calls.
The
real issue isn't with VOIP as a technology - digitizing and packetizing
voice calls, just like any other traffic - video, e-mail and so on is
just fine provided you know what you are doing and engineer the network
to cope. The digital backbones of virtually every telco are based on IP
these days- even circuit-switched calls. The core of those calls is all
fiber-based packetized technology, but managed and dimensioned in a way
that retains call quality.
It's
really only the last mile where there's a discrepancy and where
analogue still holds sway. Most mobile calls and the vast majority of
fixed line calls still get to their central office in an analogue
format, before getting digitized to get to the other side of the world,
and then reconstituted on the phone at the other end. Using the VOIP as
a bypass means that although the call is digital from end-end, but it
also gets routed in with all of the other internet traffic and takes it
chances on getting delayed with all of those video downloads that you
neighbor is doing.
What
it comes down to is that quality does make a difference despite all of
those pundits who say 'it's a new paradigm" and the world has changed.
People will sacrifice quality early in a new product's lifecycle
because it may have a utility value that outweighs the problems - mobile
phones being a classic example - the early bad quality was offset by
the value of mobility. But VOIP services don't have any offsetting
values other than price, which service providers have squeezed.
Voice
is still a killer app and not just another data stream. Without the
right engineering on a fully managed digital infrastructure, it's
unusable and that's what ungroomed raw internet connections give you
today.
The
notable exception to this is Skype, of which I'm a fan and pleased that
Skype is now available for my shiny new iPhone! Skype to Skype calls
are in hi-fi quality which is great and something way ahead of telcos
and because its uses a novel peer-peer approaches, it overcomes many of
the poor quality problems of ungroomed VOIP calls. That has allowed
Skype to capture 8% of all international calls traffic according to
TeleGeography, but probably still a long, long way from being worth the
$2 billion plus eBay paid for it.
Rumor is it's on the block and I hope somebody buys it who knows what to do with it.
What a great bolt-on to Facebook!
Posted
04-01-2009 7:45 AM
by
Keith Willetts