Focus on the Opportunity not the Pain

One of the technology areas that is accelerating through this downturn is Long Term Evolution (LTE), the fourth generation mobile network. While the whole world is clinging tightly to its wallets, auctions are underway for 4G licenses, vendors are demonstrating their solutions and contracts are being awarded (Verizon awards 4G contracts worth billions).  Ericsson, Huawei and Alcatel-Lucent seem to be the early winners, but there is a long race to run to see who will succeed in the infrastructure market. In a downturn you can’t just stand still, like a deer caught in headlights, and be paralyzed by the shock of the recession.  

A technology upgrade like LTE can represent a real threat to the market leaders, and can prove to be the saving grace of those that are struggling (such as Motorola & Nortel) as long as they have the energy and focus to attack new markets.  4G will be a totally different game and a chance for redemption.   And it's not just my opinion, it's happened many times before.  If you go back in time to 1G analog mobile networks, Motorola was the completely dominant player. As the mobile world shifted to 2G digital networks, Motorola took its eye off the ball and failed to rapidly address the 2G opportunity. As we moved to 3G, it just got worse.  4G will have some new winners and some new losers - based on technical advancement, quality, delivery timescales and pricing models.  I don't know who the new losers will be, but I'm confident that some of the new winners will be the new generation of Asian suppliers that cut their teeth on 2.5G and 3G such as Huawei and ZTE.

Game on!!