WiMax may still be in the race

For the last 12 months a debate has been raging as to whether WiMax or LTE would dominate the 4G world.  For my part I have come down on the side of LTE for a variety of reasons, and my view has been reinforced when I see major equipment vendors ramping up their LTE development programs, often to the detriment of their WiMax development plans.  But over recent weeks I've concluded that a 4G world is more likely to include a decent chunk of both WiMax and LTE, and that we need to view this entire continuum as opposed to just looking for one solution. 

I'm beginning to believe that the real winners may well be companies that can afford to maintain their investment in both.  WiMax has gained a strong foothold in developing countries where there is a need for fixed broadband, but where the copper infrastructure is poor. This of course could be supplanted by LTE once it comes along, but history seems to suggest that it is difficult to find an economic reason to displace something that has gained a foothold.  So perhaps companies like Huawei that is trying to play big in both markets has the right idea.  Huawei's recent announcement of securing the WiMax contract with Clearwire in the US, added to their string of  LTE related announcements over recent months, and their strong current 3G business, makes them a force to be reckoned with. 

Of course, the ultimate critical success factor for which technology ends up dominating may well be timing.  If the LTE launches get delayed beyond 2010, and the availability of the handsets get significatly delayed, then we could see WiMax playing a much more significant role than anyone has predicted.